Saturday, July 23, 2016

Analyzing Multi-Question Sets in Pew’s Survey Data to Estimate the Percentages of Muslims Who Hold Moderate or Extremist Views (Part 2 of 2)

(Note: This is the second part of a two-part article. For Part 1 containing the Introduction, Summary Table, and Analyses 1 – 7, click here).


8. Analysis of five-item set: Q79a, Q92b, Q92d, Q92c, Q53/Q54

8. Favor/ view as justified how many of the following: sharia as law of the land, death for apostasy, stoning for adultery, whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft, honor killing of male or female? Oppose/ view as unjustified all of these?

Survey Report: Pew, The World’s Muslims, 2013.

Favor at least one: (Q79a = 1) | (Q92b = 1) | (Q92d = 1) | (Q92c = 1) | ((Q53 <= 2) | (Q54 <= 2))

Oppose all of them: (Q79a = 2) & (Q92b = 2) & (Q92d = 2) & (Q92c = 2) & ((Q53 = 4) & (Q54 = 4))

Extremism Score: (FavQ79a) + (FavQ92b) + (FavQ92d) + (FavQ92c) + (FavQ53orQ54)


Table 8

Combined analysis of five-item set: Q79a sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings.
Extremism Score Scale: 0-5.

Mean
Percentage of Respondents

Extr.
Number of Extremist Items Favored
Opps.
Rmdr.

Score
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
>= 1
All 5
Afghanistan*
4.10
4
6
11
32
47
100
0
0
Pakistan
3.73
4
7
15
44
27
97
0
3
Egypt
3.61
4
10
25
42
18
100
0
0
Palestin. T.
3.45
8
12
18
38
22
97
1
2
Jordan
3.15
8
23
24
28
15
98
0
2
Iraq*
3.06
13
22
23
25
16
99
0
1
Niger
3.04
12
14
28
30
12
96
1
3
Malaysia
2.80
17
15
17
32
11
92
2
6
Bangladesh
2.69
22
19
21
23
11
96
2
2
Indonesia
1.76
34
18
18
12
1
82
11
7
Tunisia
1.59
28
10
7
9
11
65
27
8
Kyrgyzstan
1.29
25
19
11
7
1
63
24
13
Lebanon
1.26
29
8
3
4
11
55
32
13
Russia**
1.12
28
17
7
5
2
59
21
20
Tajikistan
1.12
25
13
8
5
4
55
23
22
Kosovo
0.63
21
9
4
1
1
37
25
38
Turkey
0.62
17
9
5
3
0
34
46
19
Albania
0.47
16
5
5
2
0
27
38
35
Bosnia-Hrz.
0.46
21
5
3
1
0
30
55
15
Azerbaijan
0.39
19
5
2
0
0
27
54
19
Kazakhstan
0.36
18
4
2
1
0
25
56
19
Pp.-W. Mean
2.43








Pop.-Wtd. %

18.74
13.33
16.46
22.81
11.44
82.78
10.80
6.42
P.-W. Cml. %
83
64
51
34




Notes. 21-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The Worlds Muslims 2012 Dataset.
*In Afghanistan and Iraq, an alternative version of Q53/Q54 was used.
**In Russia, the alternative version of Q79a referred to making sharia the law in the “Muslim Republics of Russia.”


9. Analysis of sub-Saharan five-question set: Q95a, Q95c, Q95d, Q95e, Q59c

9.1, 9.2 Endorsed the extremist/fundamentalist option for how many of the following items: sharia as law of the land, death for apostasy, stoning for adultery, whippings and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft, whether women should be allowed or only men as religious leaders? Opposed the extremist/ endorsed the moderate option for all of these?

Survey Report: Pew Sub-Saharan Africa Survey “Tolerance and Tension,” 2010, full report, see page 195 for Q59c results.

Question Q59c asks respondents whether (1) women should be allowed to serve as religious leaders, or (2) only men should be able to do so.

Q59 “Now I’m going to read you two statements. Please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own views — even if neither is exactly right.…c. 

1 - Women should be allowed to serve in religious leadership roles, such as pastor, priest or imam
OR
2 - Only men should be able to serve in religious leadership roles, such as pastor, priest or imam
…”

My classification: 1 = moderate view, 2 = extremist view.

Pew’s ambiguously-labelled “neither/both equally” responses were not classified as extremist or moderate in the present analysis. These respondents made up an unweighted mean of about 3% of the total overall for this set of countries. (The vast majority of this 3% of respondents also endorsed at least one extremist proposition among the other items).

Pew’s response coding (with my paraphrasing): 1 = women should be allowed to be religious leaders, 2 = only men should be able to be religious leaders, 3 = “Neither/Both equally,” 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused

Endorse at least one extremist proposition: (Q95a = 1) | (Q95c = 1) | (Q95e = 1) | (Q95d = 1) | (Q59c = 2)

Endorse all the more moderate propositions: (Q95a = 2) & (Q95c = 2) & (Q95e = 2) & (Q95d = 2) & (Q59c = 1)

Extremism score (0 – 5): (FavQ95a) + (FavQ95c) + (FavQ95e) + (FavQ95d) + (ChoseQ59c_2)


Table 9.1

Combined analysis of five-question set: Q95a sharia, Q95c death penalty for apostasy, Q95e stoning of adulterers, Q95d whippings and cutting off of hands, Q59c whether women should be allowed as religious leaders?
Extremism Score Scale: 0–5.

Mean
Percentage of Respondents

Extrm.
Number of Extremist Items Endorsed
Opps.
Rmdr.

Score
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
>= 1
All 5
Djibouti
3.76
7
13
11
13
52
96
2
2
Mali
3.10
15
11
17
21
28
91
4
5
Senegal
3.07
22
14
15
23
24
98
1
1
Dem.R.Congo
3.01
16
22
17
16
26
96
0
4
Guinea Bissau
2.85
20
13
26
18
17
95
1
4
Nigeria
2.73
11
30
14
17
18
91
7
2
Ghana
2.65
22
17
13
12
25
88
9
4
Uganda
2.56
14
31
21
13
13
92
7
1
Cameroon
2.50
22
22
18
20
9
93
7
1
Kenya
2.48
15
29
13
10
19
86
11
3
Chad
2.47
25
24
14
10
18
92
7
2
Mozambique
2.42
8
32
22
11
12
85
13
2
Tanzania
2.42
23
16
18
16
14
87
10
2
Liberia
2.40
19
23
17
14
14
87
8
5
Ethiopia
2.29
18
42
12
11
10
92
7
1
Pop.-W. Mean
2.65








Pop.-Wtd. %

15.75
27.20
14.58
16.03
17.49
91.04
6.75
2.21
P.-W. Cml. %
91
75
48
34




Notes. 15-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, Africa Survey 2009 Dataset.

Comments about Table 9.1:

1. In the bottom row, the population-weighted cumulative percentage who endorsed at least four of the five extremist items is 34, while 48% endorsed at least three, and 75% endorsed at least two extremist items.

2. The population-weighted percentage who endorsed zero extremist items is 6.75 + 2.21 = 8.96.


9.2 Analysis of possible moderation using the same five-question set examined in 9.1.

See 9.1 for response coding and classification. Moderation scores are calculated according to the same scheme used in 9.1 for the extremism scores, except that for the binary variables the moderate response option for each item is scored as 1 (one) and the other responses are scored as 0 (zero).

Moderation score (0 – 5): (OppQ95a) + (OppQ95c) + (OppQ95e) + (OppQ95d) + (ChoseQ59c_1)


Table 9.2

Combined analysis of five-question set: Q95a sharia, Q95c death penalty for apostasy, Q95e stoning of adulterers, Q95d whippings and cutting off of hands, Q59c whether women should be allowed as religious leaders?
Moderation Score Scale: 0–5.

Mean
Percentage of Respondents

Moderat.
Number of Extremist Items Opposed

Score
Zero
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Mozambique
2.90
7
12
17
24
28
13
Ethiopia
2.69
11
11
11
39
20
7
Tanzania
2.66
11
17
17
14
30
10
Kenya
2.65
16
10
14
25
24
11
Chad
2.60
15
12
13
22
30
7
Liberia
2.54
14
14
16
21
27
8
Uganda
2.54
11
16
17
29
21
7
Cameroon
2.53
9
20
18
20
26
7
Ghana
2.35
25
13
11
14
29
9
Nigeria
2.31
16
19
14
25
19
7
Guinea Bissau
2.09
17
22
23
14
23
1
Senegal
1.86
25
24
15
13
22
1
Dem. R. Congo
1.75
29
20
14
22
15
0
Mali
1.67
32
24
13
10
17
4
Djibouti
1.13
48
21
12
10
7
2
Pop.-Wtd. Mean
2.36






Pop.-Weighted %

16.81
17.46
13.75
23.92
21.31
6.75
Pop.-W. Cuml. %

100
83
66
52
28

Notes. 15-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, Africa Survey 2009 Dataset.



10. Analysis of a five-item set, with Q108d, Q108c, and Q108b; with Q80 and Q69b joined as one item; and Q7n, Q7o, and Q7p joined as one item.

10.1, 10.2. Endorsed the extremist/fundamentalist option for how many of the following: death penalty for apostasy, stoning of adulterers, whipping and cutting off of hands for crimes like theft, terrorist group(s) (Hamas, Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda), and support vs. oppose women’s rights? Opposed the extremist/fundamentalist (or endorse the more moderate) option for all of these?

Survey Reports: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010, “Muslim Publics Divided on Hamas and Hezbollah”; and Pew Global Attitudes, 2010, “Gender Equality Universally Embraced, but Inequalities Acknowledged.” Q69b page 28, Q80 page 30.[8] 

Note that the data summaries shown on pages 28 and 30 of the gender equality report are for the broader populations including Muslims and non-Muslims, whereas the present analyses of the data set includes only Muslims.

Q69 “Please tell me whether you completely agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or completely disagree with the following statements: …b Women should be able to work outside the home. …”

Pew’s response coding for Q69b: 1 = completely agree, 2 = mostly agree, 3 = mostly disagree, 4 = completely disagree, 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused.

My classification: 1 or 2 = moderate, 3 or 4 = extremist.

Q80 “On a different subject, do you think women should have equal rights with men, or shouldn’t they?
1          Should
2          Should not”

Pew’s response coding for Q80: 1 = should, 2 = should not, 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused.

My classification: 1 = moderate, 2 = extremist.

My extremism measure for the composite items uses the “one-is-enough” criterion for the terrorist group set, and the women’s rights set, respectively (see numeric expressions below). Endorsing the extremist option for Q80 or Q69b (for one, or the other, or both) suffices to score one extremism point. To score a moderation point for this pair, the moderate option must be chosen for both. For this scoring scheme I judged that respondents who claim to support the broad general principle of equal rights for women in Q80, but disagree when tested on a major instance of it in Q69b, do not adequately support, and significantly oppose, the principle.

For Q7o, Q7n, and Q7p, support for at least one suffices to score one extremism point, but all three must be opposed to score a moderation point.

Comment: An additional reason for combining the terrorist group questions into one item is that for some countries, especially Pakistan, there were very high percentages of “don’t know” responses. That problem limited the range of extremism or moderation scores, which do not account for don’t know/ refused responses. Combining the terrorist group questions into one item reduced that problem somewhat.

Extremist response for Q80, Q69b: (Q80 = 2) | ((Q69b = 3) | (Q69b = 4))

Extremist response for Q7n, Q7o, Q7p: (Q7n <= 2) | (Q7o <= 2) | (Q7p <= 2)

Moderate response for Q80 and Q69b: (Q80 = 1) & (Q69b <=2)

Moderate response for Q7n, Q7o, Q7p: ((Q7n = 3) | (Q7n = 4)) & ((Q7o = 3) | (Q7o = 4)) & ((Q7p = 3) | (Q7p = 4))

Extremism score: (FavQ108b) + (FavQ108c) + (FavQ108d) + (FavQ7nopAtLeastOneof) + (Q80_2orQ69b_3or4)

Moderation score: (OppQ108b) + (OppQ108c) + (OppQ108d) + (DisfavAllQ7nop) + (Q80_1andQ69b_1or2)

For Pakistan, replace Q7p with Q35b in the above expressions and labels.


Table 10.1

Combined analysis of 5-item set: Q108d death penalty for apostasy, Q108c stoning of adulterers, Q108b whippings and cutting off of hands, terrorist groups (view favorably at least one of Q7n, Q7o, Q7p), women rights/equality (oppose Q69b or Q80 or both).
Extremism Score Scale: 0 – 5.

Mean
Percentage of Respondents

Extrem.
Number of Extremist Items Endorsed

Score
Zero
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Egypt
3.61
3
3
8
26
36
24
Jordan
3.51
2
3
10
29
42
14
Pakistan*
3.09
3
10
10
35
33
8
Nigeria
3.00
4
22
11
17
25
21
Indonesia
2.03
16
24
26
15
15
4
Lebanon
0.99
34
41
18
5
2
0
Turkey
0.56
66
20
9
4
1
0
Pop.-Wtd. Mean
2.41






Pop.-Wtd. %

16.26
16.84
15.69
20.50
21.83
8.88
P.-Wtd. Cml. %

100
84
67
51
31

Notes. Seven-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.
*In Pakistan, the question about al-Qaeda was Q35b.


Table 10.2

Combined analysis of 5-item set: Q108d death penalty for apostasy, Q108c stoning of adulterers, Q108b whippings and cutting off of hands, terrorist groups (view unfavorably all of Q7n, Q7o, Q7p), women rights/equality (favor Q69b and Q80).
Moderation Score Scale: 0 – 5.

Mean
Percentage of Respondents

Moderat.
Number of Extremist Items Opposed

Score
Zero
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Turkey
4.00
2
3
8
13
30
45
Lebanon
3.91
0
3
6
19
43
30
Indonesia
2.60
9
19
14
28
22
8
Nigeria
1.70
28
27
14
12
17
2
Jordan
1.24
20
48
23
6
1
1
Egypt
1.17
28
43
19
6
2
2
Pakistan*
1.09
30
46
13
6
5
0
Pop.-Wtd. Mean
2.12






Pop.-Wtd. %

17.68
28.00
13.66
15.71
15.39
9.56
P.-Wtd. Cml. %

100
82
54
41
25

Notes. Seven-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Global Attitudes, 2010 Dataset.
*In Pakistan, the question about al-Qaeda was Q35b.


11. Analysis of seven-item set including Q92b, Q92d, Q92c, Q53/Q54, Q79a, Q77, Q78.

11.1, 11.2, 11.3. Endorsed the extremist/fundamentalist option for how many of the following: sharia, death for apostasy, stoning for adultery, whipping/cutting off hands for crimes like theft, honor killing, whether wife should have right to divorce, whether wife must always obey husband? Opposed all the extremist propositions/ endorsed all the moderate propositions?

Survey Report: Pew, The World’s Muslims, 2013, full report, Q77 page 199, Q78 page 200.

Q77 “I will read you two statements, please tell me which comes closer to your view, even if neither is exactly right.
1—A wife should have the right to divorce her husband
OR
2—A wife should not have the right to divorce her husband”

Pew’s response coding for Q77: 1 = should have right, 2 = should not have right, 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused.

My classification for Q77: 1 = moderate view, 2 = extremist view.

Q78 “Now I am going to read you a statement. Please tell me if you completely agree with it, mostly agree with it, mostly disagree with it or completely disagree with it: A wife must always obey her husband.”

Pew’s response coding for Q78: 1 = completely agree, 2 = mostly agree, 3 = mostly disagree, 4 = completely disagree, 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused.

My classification for Q78: extremist view <= 2, moderate view = 3 or 4.

Endorsed at least one extremist proposition: (Q79a = 1) | (Q92b = 1) | (Q92d = 1) | (Q92c = 1) | ((Q53 <= 2) | (Q54 <= 2)) | (Q77 = 2) | (Q78 <= 2)

Opposed all the extremist propositions (endorsed all the more moderate propositions): (Q79a = 2) & (Q92b = 2) & (Q92d = 2) & (Q92c = 2) & ((Q53 =4) & (Q54 = 4)) & (Q77 = 1) & ((Q78 = 3) | (Q78 = 4))

Extremism score: (FavQ79a) + (FavQ92b) + (FavQ92d) + (FavQ92c) + (Q53_1or2orQ54_1or2) + (ChoseQ77_2) + (ChoseQ78_1or2)

Notes. For Afghanistan’s and Iraq’s results, substitute Q53AIU and Q54AIU into the above expressions for Q53 and Q54. Also, results for Afghanistan in this analysis are based on only six items, not seven, because Q77 was not asked there. For Afghanistan, a separate set of numerical expressions was used, as above but without Q77.


Table 11.1


Combined analysis of seven-item set: Q79a sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.
Extremism Score Scale: 0 – 7.


Mean
Percentage of Respondents

Extrm.
Number of Extremist Items Endorsed

Score
Zero
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Pakistan
5.19
1
1
3
6
11
29
33
15
Egypt
5.18
0
1
2
5
18
30
32
12
Afghanistan*^
5.04
0
1
4
7
12
31
46
--
Palestinian T.
4.90
1
3
5
9
15
27
27
13
Niger
4.76
0
2
7
10
15
29
29
7
Iraq*
4.74
0
1
5
15
23
22
20
13
Jordan
4.64
0
2
5
12
24
27
21
8
Malaysia
4.55
1
4
8
16
14
19
28
9
Bangladesh
3.87
1
4
18
18
20
22
13
3
Indonesia
3.21
1
10
25
25
17
16
7
1
Tunisia
2.68
3
32
25
12
7
9
10
2
Tajikistan
2.55
4
19
37
18
9
7
4
2
Kyrgyzstan
2.28
13
24
21
20
13
7
2
0
Lebanon
2.27
14
29
25
11
5
3
10
3
Russia**
2.10
20
20
22
19
10
4
3
1
Turkey
1.38
26
43
13
9
5
3
1
0
Azerbaijan
1.08
34
38
20
4
2
1
0
0
Kosovo
1.05
47
23
17
7
4
1
1
0
Kazakhstan
0.98
37
41
13
5
2
1
0
0
Bosnia-Herz.
0.96
42
35
15
4
2
2
0
0
Albania
0.95
50
25
13
4
4
2
1
0
Pp.-Wtd. Mean
3.74

Pop.-Wtd. %

5.13
10.69
14.15
14.21
14.27
19.45
16.57
5.54
P.-W. Cml. %

100
95
84
70
56
42
22

Notes. 21-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.
*In Afghanistan and Iraq, an alternative version of Q53/Q54 was used.
**In Russia, an alternative version of Q79a referred to making sharia the law in the “Muslim Republics of Russia.”
^In this analysis, the maximum possible extremism score for Afghanistan is 6 because Q77 wasn’t asked there.

Comments about Table 11.1:

1. The population-weighted cumulative percentages in the bottom row show that 95% of Muslim adults endorsed at least one, 84% endorsed at least two, 70% endorsed at least three, 56% endorsed at least four, 42% endorsed at least five, and 22% endorsed at least six of seven items.

2. Nearly two-thirds (64.02%) of Indonesian Muslims (age 18+) endorsed at least three extremist propositions out of the set of seven. The 64.02% was obtained from unrounded numbers. Cautionary note: If one attempted to obtain that figure from the rounded numbers displayed in Table 11.1, one would end up with 66% (1 + 7 + 16 + 17 + 25). 

3. Only six of the seven items were available for Afghanistan because Pew didn’t ask Q77 there. For consistency, I calculated the population-weighted percentages of all columns, including the Seven column, with Afghanistan’s population included. This ensured that the population-weighted percentages for the columns from Zero to Seven summed to 100.00% (based on unrounded numbers). It must be noted that the population-weighted figure for the Seven column, with Afghanistan’s population excluded from the calculation for that column, is 5.70%, not 5.54%. The discrepancy is small enough that I did not see the need to make adjustments.


Table 11.2

Combined analysis of seven-item set: Q79a sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.

Percentage
Population

Endorse at Least
Oppose all Seven
Remainder

One Extremist Item
Extremist Items
Egypt
100
0
0
47868400
Afghanistan*^
100
0
0
14581600
Niger
100
0
0
6741600
Iraq*
100
0
0
15698400
Jordan
100
0
0
3347200
Pakistan
99
0
1
97540000
Palestinian T.
99
0
1
1989600
Malaysia
99
0
1
11069200
Bangladesh
99
1
0
83462000
Indonesia
99
0
1
141766400
Tunisia
97
2
1
7416400
Tajikistan
96
2
2
3741200
Kyrgyzstan
87
9
4
2933200
Lebanon
86
9
5
1816000
Russia**
80
10
10
10832400
Turkey
74
16
9
48730000
Azerbaijan
66
22
12
6556800
Kazakhstan
63
27
10
7558000
Bosnia-Herz.
58
33
9
1362800
Kosovo
53
19
28
1107200
Albania
50
26
25
1846800

Population
491408671
15540507
11016022
517965200
Pop.-Weighted %
94.87
3.00
2.13
100.00
Notes. 21-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.
*In Afghanistan and Iraq, an alternative version of Q53/Q54 was used.
**In Russia, an alternative version of Q79a referred to making sharia the law in “Muslim Republics of Russia.”
^In this analysis, only six items of the set were available for Afghanistan because Q77 wasn’t asked there.

Comments about Table 11.2:

1. See Comment 2 about Table 11.3, below, regarding the calculation of the population-weighted percentage of those who opposed all seven extremist items.

2. If we remove the sharia item (Q79a and variant) from the above analysis and keep the remaining six items (or five items for Afghanistan), a population-weighted 93.90% favor at least one extremist item.


11.3 Analysis of possible moderation in the same seven-item set used in 11.1. See 11.1 for response coding and classification.

Moderation score (0 – 7): (OppQ79a) + (OppQ92b) + (OppQ92d) + (OppQ92c) + (Q53_4andQ54_4) + (ChoseQ77_1) + (ChoseQ78_3or4)


Table 11.3


Combined analysis of seven-item set: Q79a sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.
Moderation Score Scale: 0 – 7.


Mean
Percentage of Respondents

Moder.
Number of Extremist Items Opposed

Score
Zero
One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Bosnia-Herz.
5.70
0
2
3
4
8
16
36
33
Kazakhstan
5.54
1
2
2
4
11
18
35
27
Azerbaijan
5.38
1
1
3
5
11
27
31
22
Albania
5.24
1
2
5
9
11
17
29
26
Turkey
5.18
1
2
5
7
12
21
36
16
Kosovo
4.79
1
5
7
11
16
20
22
19
Lebanon
4.29
4
10
3
6
23
24
19
9
Russia**
4.06
5
7
8
16
20
19
14
10
Tunisia
4.00
4
13
9
8
15
24
24
2
Kyrgyzstan
3.99
3
8
12
17
21
16
16
9
Tajikistan
3.54
5
9
14
15
24
23
7
2
Indonesia
3.25
3
11
19
20
26
17
5
0
Bangladesh
2.50
7
22
25
19
15
9
2
1
Jordan
1.71
17
33
25
16
6
2
1
0
Niger
1.68
17
34
27
11
6
4
0
0
Palestinian T.
1.58
25
33
20
12
6
3
2
0
Iraq*
1.55
27
28
20
18
6
1
1
0
Malaysia
1.44
27
38
14
11
8
3
0
0
Egypt
1.18
28
39
23
8
1
1
0
0
Pakistan
1.10
34
38
18
6
3
1
0
0
Afghanistan*^
0.73
56
26
9
6
2
0
0
--
Pp.-Wtd. Mean
2.63

Pop.-Wtd. %

14.58
21.13
17.63
13.24
13.14
10.21
7.07
3.00
P.-W. Cml. %

100
85
64
47
33
20
10

Notes. 21-country population is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.
*In Afghanistan and Iraq, an alternative version of Q53/Q54 was used.
**In Russia, an alternative version of Q79a referred to making sharia the law in the “Muslim Republics of Russia.”
^In this analysis, the maximum possible moderation score for Afghanistan is 6 because Q77 wasn’t asked there.

Comments about Table 11.3:

1. The population-weighted cumulative percentage of respondents who opposed at least four extremist items was 33, while 47% opposed at least three, and 64% opposed at least two extremist items.

2. Following the same scheme used for analysis 11.1, for consistency I calculated the Seven column here with Afghanistan’s population included, even though for that country there were only six items from the set of seven. The population-weighted figure for the Seven column, with Afghanistan’s population excluded from the calculation for that column, is about 3.09%, not 3.00%. While the discrepancy warrants noting, it is small enough that I didn’t deem it necessary to make any adjustments.


12. Additional Analyses of Individual Countries

Survey Report: All countries below are included in Pew’s (2013) “The World’s Muslims” full report, except for Algeria. Coding and classification of the responses in this section is consistent with that of the analyses reported above.

Due to various restrictions, Pew researchers were not able to ask all of their questions in every surveyed country. Consequently, I could not include Morocco and Uzbekistan in the combined multi-item set analyses presented above. Here I present analyses for each of those two countries using the limited sets of available extremist items. In addition, I present analyses for Algeria and Thailand, which I excluded from the multi-country population-weighting because they did not have adequate nationally-representative samples. Finally, Pakistan is apparently the only country where Pew asked a question about blasphemy laws. I will present a combined analysis incorporating that question for Pakistan.

12.1 Morocco, single-country combined analysis of Q79a, Q53/Q54, Q77, and Q78.

Table 12.1

 Single-country analysis for Morocco.

 Combined analysis of 4-item set: Q79a sharia, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.

Mean Extremism Score for Morocco = 2.11, Scale 0 – 4.  

Number of Extremist Items Endorsed
Oppose
All Four
Remainder

One
Two
Three
Four
>= 1
Population
3219499
11312991
5299316
722423
20554229
209179
407392
Percentage
15.21
53.44
25.03
3.41
97.09
0.99
1.92
Cumul. %
97
82
28




Notes. Moroccan population (21170800) is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.



12.2 Uzbekistan, single-country combined analysis of Q53AIU/Q54AIU, Q77, and Q78.    

Table 12.2

Single-country analysis for Uzbekistan.

Combined analysis of 3-item set: Q53AIU/Q54AIU “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.

Mean Extremism Score for Uzbekistan = 1.43, Scale 0 – 3.

Number of Extremist Items Endorsed
Oppose All Three
Remainder

One
Two
Three
>= 1

Population
8181466
5671959
1654843
15508269
913428
661503

Percentage
47.89
33.20
9.69
90.78
5.35
3.87

Cumul. %
91
43





Notes. Uzbek population (17083200) is of Muslims age 18 or older. Displayed numbers are rounded.

Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.




12.3 Thailand, single-country regional* combined analysis of Q79aTHA, Q92b, Q92c, Q92d, Q53/Q54, Q77, Q78.

*Survey conducted only in the five southernmost provinces of Thailand. Pew states that the results are “Representative of adult Muslims in five southern provinces.” (From page 156, “The World’s Muslims,” 2013, full report).

For Thailand, Q79aTHA asked “Do you favor or oppose making the sharia, or Islamic law, the official law of the land in the provinces where the Muslim population forms a majority?”

Table 12.3

Single-country regional analysis for Thailand.

Combined analysis of 7-item set: Q79aTHA sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.

Mean Extremism Score for surveyed provinces of Thailand = 3.59, Scale 0 – 7.

Number of Extremist Items Endorsed
Opps. All 7
Rmdr.

One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
>= 1
Percentage
6.42
20.49
20.67
20.21
13.04
12.78
3.90
97.50
1.17
1.32
Cumula. %
98
91
71
50
30
17




Notes. Thai respondents were Muslims age 18 and older, in five southern provinces. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.

Comment about Table 12.3: Approx. 71% of the Thai respondents endorsed at least three extremist items, 50% endorsed at least four, 30% endorsed at least five, and 17% endorsed at least six.



12.4 Algeria, single-country* combined analysis of Q79a, Q92b, Q92c, Q92d, Q53/Q54, Q77, Q78.

*The “Codebook” file, in Pew’s “The World’s Muslims” 2012 Dataset folder, notes of the Algerian data: “Nationally representative of 75% of the adult population. Interviews conducted in the Western region were excluded due to an administrative error.”

Data Source: Pew Research, “The World’s Muslims,” 2012 Dataset.


Table 12.4

Single-country multi-regional analysis for Algeria.

Combined analysis of 7-item set: Q79a sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.

Mean Extremism Score for surveyed regions of Algeria = 4.22, Scale 0 – 7.

Number of Extremist Items Endorsed
Opps.
All 7
Rmdr

One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
>= 1
Percent
4.69
8.48
11.69
24.23
35.84
14.04
0.71
99.68
0.14
0.18
Cuml. %
100
95
87
75
51
15




Notes. Sample is “representative of 75%” of Algerian Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.




12.5 Pakistan, single-country combined analysis of Q76, Q79a, Q92b, Q92c, Q92d, Q53/Q54, Q77, Q78.

For Q76 results see page 199 in Pew’s (2013) “The World’s Muslims,” full report.

Q76 “Which comes closer to your view about our country’s blasphemy laws even if neither is exactly right? …                                                                                                                                

1 - Blasphemy laws are necessary to protect Islam in our country
OR
2 - Blasphemy laws unfairly target minority communities

3 Neither/Both equally (Vol.)…”

Pew’s response code for Q76 view of Pakistan’s blasphemy laws: 1 = necessary to protect Islam, 2 = unfairly target minorities, 3 = neither/both equally (volunteered), 8 = don’t know, 9 = refused.

My classification: 1 = extremist, 2 = moderate.

Note: Pakistan’s legal punishments for various kinds of blasphemy are extremely harsh, including the death penalty, or lengthy jail sentences including life imprisonment.

Table 12.5

Single-country analysis for Pakistan.

Combined analysis of 8-item set: Q76 blasphemy laws, Q79a sharia, Q92b death penalty for apostasy, Q92d stoning of adulterers, Q92c whippings and cutting off of hands, Q53/Q54 “honor” killings, Q77 whether a wife should have the right to divorce, Q78 whether a wife must always obey her husband.

Mean Extremism Score for Pakistan = 5.94, Scale 0 – 8.
Endorsed at Least One Extremist Item = 98.84%
Opposed All Eight Extremist Items = 0.00%
Remainder = 1.16%

Number of Extremist Items Endorsed

One
Two
Three
Four
Five
Six
Seven
Eight
Population
1301793
1919250
3800853
6537982
15457174
25812943
27710245
13870543
Percent
1.33
1.97
3.90
6.70
15.85
26.46
28.41
14.22
Cumul. %
99
98
96
92
85
69
43
Notes. Pakistani population (97540000) is of Muslims age 18 and older. Displayed numbers are rounded.
Data Source: Pew Research, The World’s Muslims 2012 Dataset.






Discussion

The method of analyzing multi-question sets reported here helps make a significant step forward in answering the question of what percentage of the world’s Muslim population is moderate versus hardline fundamentalist extremist. Perhaps the most remarkable result, with clear data, is reported in Analysis 11 for the seven-item set: Across 21 countries, a population-weighted 95% of Muslim adults favored at least one extremist item, and only 3% opposed all seven extremist items. From there, it is not implausible to suppose that the level of support for at least one extremist item would increase by at least another 1 or 2% in the overall Muslim adult population if just a few more items were added to the set for the main analyses, such as concerning harsh punishments for “blasphemy” and homosexuality.

The analyses of the terrorist group sets revealed that 46% (or 41%) of Muslim adults overall across seven (or eleven) countries viewed favorably at least one of three (or four) terrorist groups (see 5.1 and 5.4). Only 23% (or 22%) viewed all three (or four) unfavorably. Very large percentages of “don’t know” responses in those analyses obscured the results. Follow-up analyses on the subset of respondents who gave definite answers on all three (or four) questions revealed that majorities (62% and 57%) of the subset viewed favorably at least one terrorist/ militant fundamentalist group (see 5.2 and 5.4). Of additional concern about these results is that the three or four terrorist groups in the sets constitute only a tiny portion of the numerous Islamic terrorist groups in various regions around the world. These analyses and considerations suggest that it is likely that the majority of the world’s Muslim adults has a favorable view at least one terrorist group.

Some might allege that sharia is such a broad concept and is interpreted in so many different ways that to treat it as extremist/hardline fundamentalist is not sufficiently warranted. However, that objection is not appropriate for these data because (a) the sharia item here refers explicitly to sharia or “Islamic law” as the official law of the country (Q79a)—which implies quite an extensive implementation, and (b) one can already see in Pew’s (2013) report that the level of support for extreme punishments is, in almost all surveyed countries, higher in the sharia-supporting subset than in the general sample (e.g., compare the subset results on pp. 52-55 with the general sample results on pp. 219-221).[2]

For those who have other objections or reservations about the inclusion of the sharia item (Q79a), I refer back to Analysis 4, which does not include it. Analysis 4 showed that 69% of Muslim adults favored at least one extremist item out of the set of four (including three forms of murder and a brutal corporal punishments item) and only about 21% opposed all four of them. Also see the result of a follow-up analysis mentioned in the second comment under Table 11.2: Despite reducing the set size from seven to six by removing the sharia item, there was still a population-weighted 94% support for at least one extremist item—only about 1% less than when the sharia item was included. Apparently, there is a lot of overlap between support for sharia as the law of the country and support for various extremist items.

Another possible objection is that, among a significant percentage of respondents, support for any of the three harsh sharia punishment items (Q92b,c,d) does not represent a desire to actually implement any of these laws. However, the objection fails to take into account the fact that support for those items was similar overall (and in some cases higher) in the 2010 Pew Global survey, where the questions were framed explicitly as proposals to make the punishments the law in one’s country. Compare the results for the different data sets in Analyses 1.1 and 3, above (in Part 1); and for the single-question results see Analyses 1, 2, and 3 of the previous article.

One possible criticism of the one-is-enough criterion, used here to detect likely extremists, is that it is too narrow and neglects respondents who, while favoring one extremist item, may have opposed most or all of the others. Also, some might suggest that the requirement that one must oppose all extremist items in the set to qualify as a possible moderate is too strict. For example, some respondents may have favored zero extremist items and opposed most of them, but may have responded “don’t know/refused” to one or two of them. These concerns about possible borderline moderates were addressed in the analyses of how many extremist items were supported or opposed. Analysis 11 had the largest question set with seven items and a 21-country population (including Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Turkey, etc.). It showed that 84% favored at least two, 70% favored at least three, and 56% favored at least four out of seven extremist items in the set.

As was mentioned in the Introduction, a major limitation of the measure of moderation here is that respondents who oppose the extremist items in the sets may favor (a) other extremist items not in the sets of available items for most countries (e.g., death penalty for blasphemy), and (b) other harsh punishments for some “crimes” that were included (e.g., apostasy) in the sets of available items. I think one can say that those who oppose all of the extremist items in the sets of questions are possible moderates. The larger the set of items where all extremist items are opposed, the more probable that the respondent is a moderate.

There are numerous other concerns and objections that might be addressed here, but due to limits of space and time, they will have to be addressed in future articles. Some might suggest that there are moderates to be found through analyzing other items from Pew’s questionnaire, such as those regarding democracy, religious freedom, concern about extremism, and (among the sharia-favoring subset) limiting the application of sharia to only Muslims. Preliminary analyses indicate that respondents in these subsets appear to support specific harsh punishments and other extremist items to about the same extent as the general sample.




Disclaimer

Pew Research is not responsible for my analyses or my interpretation of their data. From the Pew instructions for downloading data sets: “All manuscripts, articles, books, and other papers and publications using our data should reference the Pew Research Center’s Religion & Public Life Project as the source of the data and should acknowledge that the Pew Research Center bears no responsibility for the interpretations presented or conclusions reached based on analysis of the data.”




Notes and References

[1] Words like “moderate,” “extremist,” “fundamentalist,” etc. are in some ways inadequate in my opinion, but, as I’ve suggested elsewhere, we will probably have to make do with them, with caveats and clarifications, until better alternatives are established in popular usage.

[2] The World’s Muslims: Religion, Politics and Society, Pew Research Center (April 30, 2013), full report pdf http://www.pewforum.org/files/2013/04/worlds-muslims-religion-politics-society-full-report.pdf

[3] I recommend that those readers who intend to replicate many or all of the population-weighted results reported here should have adequate experience with spreadsheets, statistical software, and adequate knowledge of statistics and research methods. Attempting to reproduce the entire set of population-weighted results reported here would probably be too time-consuming for most people, but reproducing one full analysis of interest (with population-weighting) is probably a manageable project for most people who are familiar with how to use a spreadsheet. Basic instructions for using PSPP to open and do a simple analysis of the Pew data files are included here and here.

[4] The data sets drawn from here for the analyses include the Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life’s Sub-Saharan Africa Survey, Pew Global Attitudes Spring 2010 Survey Dataset, Pew Religion’s TheWorld's Muslims Dataset 2012, and Pew Global Attitudes 2013 Spring Survey. These data set packages contain multiple files in addition to the data files proper, such as a Codebook and detailed Questionnaire.

[5] Muslim Publics Divided on Hamas and Hezbollah, Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project (December 2, 2010) http://www.pewglobal.org/files/2010/12/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Muslim-Report-FINAL-December-2-2010.pdf

[6] Tolerance and Tension: Islam and Christianity in Sub-Saharan Africa, Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life (April, 2010), full report pdf. http://www.pewforum.org/files/2010/04/sub-saharan-africa-full-report.pdf

[7] Muslim Publics Share Concerns About Extremist Groups, Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project (September 10, 2013) http://www.pewglobal.org/2013/09/10/muslim-publics-share-concerns-about-extremist-groups/ (see Complete Report pdf).

[8] Gender Equality Universally Embraced, but Inequalities Acknowledged. Pew Research Center Global Attitudes Project, (July, 2010) http://www.pewglobal.org/2010/07/01/gender-equality/ (see Complete Report pdf).